Anomaly detection

Meta Ads anomaly detection that
catches drifts in 2 hours,
not 2 days.

crumplz's Anomaly Engine runs a full check on your Meta Ads ROAS, CPA, CTR and MER every 2 hours. Dynamic thresholds. Shopify cross-validation. One actionable alert when something drifts. No false positives. No dashboard to check.

Start free — 3 min setup See the engine

Dynamic thresholds · Shopify MER cross-validation · WhatsApp, Slack, Email

Checks every 2 hours Dynamic per-campaign baselines 4 metrics monitored −19% wasted ad spend
What anomaly detection means

Not alerts on numbers.
Alerts on deviations.

The difference between "alert when CPA > €40" and actually detecting an anomaly is the difference between static rules and real intelligence.

Static threshold alerting

  • Fixed value you set manually (e.g. "alert when CPA > €40")
  • Fires on normal seasonality — Mondays, post-weekend dips
  • Misses slow degradation that never crosses the threshold
  • No cross-validation — alerts even when Shopify revenue is fine
  • Requires manual updates when campaign performance shifts

crumplz Anomaly Engine

  • Dynamic baseline per campaign from historical performance
  • Accounts for day-of-week patterns — no false Monday alerts
  • Detects both velocity (sudden drop) and trend (slow bleed)
  • Cross-validated with Shopify MER before alert fires
  • Self-adjusting — learns as your campaign pattern evolves
What crumplz monitors

Four metrics. One engine.
Full campaign visibility.

ROAS
Return on Ad Spend
Tracks revenue generated per euro spent on Meta Ads
CPA
Cost per Acquisition
Monitors cost per conversion across campaigns and ad sets
CTR
Click-Through Rate
Detects creative fatigue and audience exhaustion signals
MER
Marketing Efficiency Ratio
Cross-validates Meta signals with real Shopify revenue and AOV

Monitoring these four together catches patterns that individual metric alerts miss. A ROAS drop with stable CTR points to landing page or checkout issues. A CTR drop with stable CPA points to creative fatigue before it hits profitability.

How the engine works

Simple algorithms.
Robust signals.

No black box. crumplz uses transparent, explainable anomaly detection — not a model you can't inspect.

Rolling baseline per campaign

For each campaign, crumplz builds a rolling 14-day baseline for each metric, segmented by day of week. Monday's ROAS baseline is different from Friday's. This eliminates the most common false positives from weekly campaign rhythms.

Drift velocity + trend detection

crumplz detects two types of anomaly: sudden drift (large deviation within a single 2-hour window) and trend degradation (consistent directional movement over multiple windows). Both trigger alerts at different severity levels.

Shopify MER confirmation gate

Before an alert fires, crumplz cross-validates the Meta signal against live Shopify MER data. If Meta shows a ROAS drop but Shopify revenue is holding, the alert is held — likely an attribution lag, not a real drift.

Recommended action per pattern

Different anomaly patterns map to different recommended actions. Creative fatigue → rotate creatives. CPM spike → check competitor activity or budget pacing. CVR drop → check landing page. Every alert is contextual, not generic.

Dynamic baselines

How dynamic baselines work

A static threshold asks one question: is ROAS below X?
That question fails twice. It fires on a normal slow Sunday. It stays silent while a real drift eats your budget on a strong day.

A dynamic baseline asks a better question: is this metric behaving like it usually does, right now?

crumplz builds that baseline from your own campaign history: your patterns, your seasonality, your normal ups and downs. In practice, that is a rolling 14-day range per metric, segmented by day of week, so a Monday is only ever compared to your other Mondays. When a metric leaves its expected range, that's a deviation. Then we cross-check it against your Shopify MER before waking you up.

The result: fewer false alarms, faster real ones. Simple, robust algorithms. No black box.

What to look for

Anomaly detection for Facebook Ads: what to look for

Shopping for a Facebook Ads anomaly detection tool? Four things separate a lifeguard from another dashboard:

Deviation-based alerts, not fixed thresholds. Your account has its own normal. The tool should learn it.

Revenue cross-validation. An ad metric alone can lie. Checked against Shopify revenue, it can't.

An action attached to every alert. Knowing something drifted is useless. Knowing what to do about it isn't.

A detection window measured in hours. A drift caught in 2 hours costs you a coffee. Caught in 2 days, it costs you the week.

crumplz checks all four. That's the whole product.

Pricing

Anomaly Engine in every plan.

Starter

€79

/ month

  • Full Anomaly Engine (ROAS, CPA, CTR, MER)
  • 1 ad account
  • WhatsApp, Slack, Email
  • Check every 2h

Growth ⭐ Most popular

€149

/ month

  • Everything in Starter
  • 3 ad accounts
  • Custom anomaly thresholds
  • Priority support

Pro

€249

/ month

  • Everything in Growth
  • Multi-store
  • Roles & permissions
  • Budget automation (roadmap)
FAQ

About Meta Ads anomaly detection

How does crumplz avoid false positive alerts?
Three layers of false positive prevention: (1) Dynamic baselines segmented by day of week, so normal Monday patterns don't trigger alerts. (2) Multi-metric confirmation — a ROAS drop alone isn't enough; it needs to be corroborated by CPA or MER movement. (3) Shopify MER confirmation gate — if Shopify revenue is holding, the alert is held. The result is fewer alerts, higher signal quality.
What happens during a campaign's Meta learning phase?
crumplz automatically adjusts sensitivity during the learning phase. When a new campaign has limited historical data, dynamic thresholds are wider — so normal learning-phase volatility doesn't trigger alerts. Sensitivity narrows as the baseline builds over 7–14 days.
Can I customize anomaly sensitivity per campaign?
Yes on Growth and Pro plans. You can set campaign-specific sensitivity levels — for example, making a high-spend campaign more sensitive (alert on smaller deviations) or a test campaign less sensitive (only alert on major anomalies). Starter uses automatic sensitivity calibration.
How does Meta Ads anomaly detection work?
crumplz reads your campaign metrics every 2 hours — ROAS, CPA, CTR and MER. Each metric is compared to its own expected range, built from your account's history. When one drifts out of range and the deviation is confirmed against your Shopify revenue, you get an alert with the recommended action.
Which Meta Ads metrics should be monitored for anomalies?
Four cover the real failure modes: ROAS (revenue efficiency), CPA (cost per result), CTR (creative health) and MER (blended reality check). Watch fewer and you miss drifts. Watch many more and you drown in noise.
How is this different from Meta's native alerts?
Meta's rules are static thresholds you configure and maintain yourself, inside Ads Manager. crumplz needs no thresholds, cross-checks Shopify revenue, and delivers the alert where your team already is — Slack, WhatsApp or email.

Static rules miss drifts.
crumplz catches them.

Dynamic anomaly detection. Shopify cross-validation. Action in every alert.

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